It Could Come Down to Colorado
October 24, 2016 by Somebody Else
At the time of this writing, it seems like Hillary Clinton is going to win this election by a substantial margin, at least according to current polling as it pertains to the electoral college process. Barring some kind of last-minute miracle, there is every reason to believe that Trump’s chances of victory at this point are slim to none.
But as we very well know, a lot can happen between now and election day. Who knows what kind of dirt will be dug up about Clinton and exposed for all to see? Who knows what kinds of unforced errors she might commit? Who knows if Trump might get extra lucky and spontaneously toss out some bullseye zinger or another that somehow magically resonates with undecided voters? Like I said, unlikely, but you never know, you really just never know.
But here at Somebody’s Webpage, we have prepared for this type of longshot scenario. And here’s the interesting thing. It could all come down to Colorado.
This may seem odd at first, since the media punditry haven’t really been putting focus on any one state to possibly decide the election. The general consensus at this point is that Trump has completely run out of ways to piece together a triumph. However, as we look into our crystal ball, we see an extremely narrow, but at least theoretically plausible path to the oval office for the Donald.
In order to make this happen, we must award to Trump all current battleground states, in each of which Republicans have won or come close to winning since 2004. Thus, for the sake of argument, let’s give him these: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. There has been some discussion in the media about the possibility of Trump being potentially competitive in Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, but let’s not kid ourselves about those states, since Clinton has consistently maintained commanding leads there for a good while. They will all undoubtedly go for Clinton. On the other side of the equation, let’s lock in for Trump the traditionally Republican states where Clinton seems to be within striking distance, that is, within 5 points in current polls, which are Utah, Arizona, and Georgia. Those will all almost undoubtedly go to Trump in the end.
So, with the scenario we’ve just outlined for you, Clinton has 264 electoral votes, and Trump has 265. Neither has the 270 electoral votes required to win. The only state left is Colorado.
At present, the polling average for Colorado shows Clinton with a lead of almost 5 points. She appears to have steadily maintained this modest lead in that state for several months. But again, let’s assume that everything comes together for Trump at the very end and he wins Colorado. In that case, with the scenario we’ve outlined, Trump wins the election with 274 electoral votes to Clinton’s 264. But if he can’t take Colorado, she wins with 273 electoral votes to his 265.
At any rate, you can see that for Trump to win at this point, he has to get EVERYTHING to break his way. We don’t think this is very likely. In fact, I predict that Trump will lose every battleground state I mentioned except for possibly Iowa, where he has held a slim lead in the polls for some time, although Trump didn’t pull ahead of Clinton there until early September. Nonetheless, it is of course still quite possible for him to lose Iowa as well.
But let’s give him Iowa for the sake of argument. In that scenario, Clinton wins with 341 electoral votes to Trump’s 197. This is my prediction for how it will end, more or less.
But then again, who knows. At this point, it would seem to us that either he wins Colorado or he has no plausible way of becoming President of the United States. Maybe it’s time for him to praise the benefits of legalizing marijuana, perhaps visit a few weed stores in that state, and play a bunch of Bob Marley tunes at the gatherings for his speeches, such as “Legalize It.” Watch out, because these things might be happening soon. But I sort of doubt it. Get ready for Hillary.
Copyright 2016 by Somebody's Webpage